ERIC STOKAN
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​Economic Development Today

COVID-19: Confirmed v. Death Rates- Metro Detroit

4/7/2020

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I have begun tracking a much wider array of statistics on Coronavirus and will be updating the blog more frequently, but here are some numbers out of Metro-Detroit which turns out to be one of the hotspots for COVID cases and deaths sadly.  In future blogs, I hope to integrate data from FlightRadar24 which shows how many flights are still coming into Metro-Detroit from all over the world.  

In this post, I calculate the most recent statistics for Metro-Detroit.  Here we see the number of confirmed cases by County.
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The problem with this of course is that the raw number does not tell us anything about the population size, so I standardize by population.   The next visual shows the cases in per capita terms.  I notice that the number of cases in per capita terms is still a fraction of 1% of the population.  
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We are of course worried about the fatality rate.  So, I look at the percentage of confirmed cases that result in death.  But, I am interested in seeing the relationship with population density.  I want to do this on a broader scale, but for now focus on metro-Detroit in tabular form.  I intend to run correlations when there are enough counties to establish this relationship.  I am still very suspect of the data, in this case Monroe County is reporting no deaths but this is likely a statistical improbability based on the number of confirmed cases. 
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In the table above, from April 7th, we see that the number of confirmed cases that result in death varies considerably (18.2 to 77.5); however, there clearly seems to be a relationship between this proportion and population density.  Yet, we also know that density is associated with many other demographic factors and to appropriately analyze these relationships we need a larger data set and to control for many other factors. This will form the basis of future analyses. 
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    Eric Stokan

    I am an assistant professor of political science at the University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC).  I completed my Ph.D. in Public Policy and Public Administration at George Washington University.

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